Bitcoin circles $81.5K ETF cost basis as Trump Iran comments send stocks lower
Bitcoin (BTC) stayed below $82,000 around Thursday’s Wall Street open as Iran war headlines returned to pressure risk assets.
Key points:
- Bitcoin preserved 3% daily losses on Thursday as US stocks fell on geopolitical tensions.
- US President Donald Trump reiterated the chance of new military action against Iran, with no negotiations ongoing.
- BTC price analysis saw $84,400 as a short-term ceiling ahead of the Oct. 28 Federal Reserve meeting on interest rates.
Stocks fall as Trump says US “not negotiating” with Iran
Data from TradingView showed BTC/USD hitting $81,256 on Bitstamp, down 2.9% on the day.
BTC/USD one-hour chart. Source: Cointelegraph/TradingView
Mixed reactions to Tesla earnings and capital expenditures combined with a risk-off mentality stoked by fresh comments from Trump that the US was “not negotiating” with the Iranian side.
“We are going to have something one way or the other that will happen fairly soon. Most people seem to think it’s after the election and we’ll see what happens,” he told reporters, referring to the US midterm elections on Nov. 3.
US stocks fell at the open, with the S&P 500 Index down 1.3% at the time of writing. The tech-heavy Nasdaq Composite Index was 2.3% lower.
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“Tech stocks came under pressure amid renewed AI valuation fears. The rebound in energy prices contributed to the risk-off tone,” Ian Lyngen at BMO Capital Markets, told Bloomberg. He said:
“Treasuries have emerged as a primary beneficiary as global risk sentiment has come under pressure.”
Nasdaq Composite Index one-day chart. Source: Cointelegraph/TradingView
As bond returns improved, the US 10-year bond yield approached 5% on the day, slipping to its lowest level since Sept. 23.
US 10-year bond yield one-day chart. Source: Cointelegraph/TradingView
Expect BTC in narrow range until Fed meeting
After reaching nearly $85,000 the day prior, BTC price action continued to circle the cost basis of the US spot Bitcoin exchange-traded funds (ETFs) at around $81,500.
Analysts at Bitfinex Alpha, the research arm of crypto exchange Bitfinex, on Wednesday forecast BTC/USD trading in a narrow range between $81,300 and $84,400 until the Federal Reserve rate policymakers next meeting on Oct. 28.
“Sustained ETF demand with stable leverage metrics would support a breakout above $84,400, while macro headwinds combined with a close below $81,300 would increase the risk of a move towards the 15 October low at $79,821,” the analysts wrote.
On longer time frames, traders discounted the odds of a major price recovery by mid-January 2027, with Kalshi traders trimming the chances of BTC/USD hitting new all-time highs to just 3%.
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