Bitcoin falls under $64K as surging US bond yields boost Fed rate-hike odds

Bitcoin (BTC) fell more than 1.6% on Friday as its latest price correction accelerated after Wall Street opened.

Key points:

• Bitcoin price downside pressure mounts on the back of multiple macro headwinds.
• US bond yields further a hawkish pivot in Fed interest-rate expectations.
• BTC price analysis sees a Binance “plunge protection team” attempting to shore up the market.

Analysis warns US bond yields now “well above” target

Data from TradingView showed BTC/USD approaching $64,000 as bulls struggled to preserve recent gains.

BTC/USD one-hour chart. Source: Cointelegraph/TradingView

Geopolitical tensions and macroeconomic headwinds weighed on crypto markets as appetite for risk assets faded.

Trading firm Mosaic Asset Company said rising US Treasury yields were a key driver of the sell-off.

“Massive moves are underway across the yield curve despite a weaker than expected consumer inflation report,” it wrote, referring to the latest US Consumer Price Index (CPI) report.

Mosaic said the two-year yield was particularly prone to influence the outlook on Federal Reserve interest-rate changes, with risk assets suffering as a result of additional hikes.

“The 2-year yield that tends to lead fed funds is now at 4.31% and sits well above the Federal Reserve’s target range,” it continued.

US two-year Treasury yield one-week chart. Source: Cointelegraph/TradingView

The latest data from CME Group’s FedWatch Tool showed that markets still expected the Fed to leave rates unchanged next week, while pricing in a 0.25% hike in September as one of two increases expected before the end of 2026.

Mosaic added that those expectations were “placing downward pressure on stock indexes.”

Fed target-rate probability comparison for September FOMC meeting (screenshot). Source: CME Group

In ongoing market monitoring, crypto trader Killa said BTC was repeating a familiar short-term trading pattern.

Related: BTC supply in profit eyes 60%, but analysis hints recovery may ‘roll back over’

“Textbook setup on $BTC. Seen this occur numerous times,” they said on X, repeating a post from early June in which they identified a “plunge protection team” active on the largest crypto exchange Binance.

A chart accompanying the post showed layers of bid liquidity below the spot price, with its owners potentially not planning for the positions to be filled.

BTC/USDT chart with order-book liquidity data. Source: Killa on X.com

Analytics account Wealthmanager focused on $64,000, warning that a break below that level would “invalidate” the low-timeframe market structure.

Trader and analyst Rekt Capital, meanwhile, doubled down on the theory that BTC/USD was repeating behavior from its 2022 bear market, rejecting from the 50-month exponential moving average (EMA) at $65,950.

“Bitcoin hasn’t really offered any evidence to the contrary. Still following 2022 historical tendencies,” he summarized.

BTC/USD one-month chart with 21, 50EMA. Source: Rekt Capital on X.com