Bitcoin trades at a 'discount' on Coinbase: Is a $76K retest next?

Key takeaways:

• The Coinbase Bitcoin discount likely stems from stablecoin outflows rather than actual institutional sell pressure.
• Strategy continues buying Bitcoin as the market holds firm despite minor price differences across exchanges.

Bitcoin (BTC) showed resilience on Thursday by successfully defending the $79,000 level. However, some traders worry that upside momentum is stalling as Bitcoin on Coinbase trades at a discount relative to stablecoin pairs on international exchanges.

Coinbase discount likely driven by stablecoin outflows

While the indicator is often debated, it potentially suggests a lack of institutional buying demand, though the situation is likely more complex.

BTC/USD at Coinbase vs. BTC/USDT at major exchanges. Source: TradingView & Cointelegraph

BTC/USD on Coinbase has maintained a 0.03% discount against Binance, OKX, and Bybit over the past week. This gap represents a notable shift from the 0.04% premium seen in April. This change in market structure happened even as Strategy (MSTR US) purchased 51,364 BTC during a three-week window.

Although a correlation exists between institutional activity and the Coinbase premium, stablecoin demand also impacts the metric. High volumes of traders moving from crypto back into fiat currency can cause stablecoins to devalue slightly against the dollar. 

Consequently, these assets do not always trade at parity, which can distort the perceived premium or discount on USD-based exchanges.

USD stablecoin premium/discount relative to USD/CNY rate. Source: OKX

Measured in China’s Yuan, USD stablecoins are currently trading at a 0.6% discount against the official foreign exchange rate. This data signals heightened demand to exit cryptocurrency markets and is likely the main driver behind the Bitcoin discount on Coinbase compared to stablecoin-based pricing. 

Coinbase Bitcoin inflows not enough to justify a sell pressure

Essentially, stablecoin prices remain volatile regardless of whether they are quoted in dollars or Yuan.

Bitcoin 7-day average net transfer volumes at Coinbase, USD. Source: Glassnode

Net Bitcoin flows on the Coinbase exchange show average net deposits of $58 million per day. This figure is relatively modest and does not reflect the disparity with other markets. For comparison, average net daily Bitcoin withdrawals peaked at $275 million in April, yet the Coinbase premium failed to climb above 0.05% during that period.

US-listed spot Bitcoin ETFs daily net flows, USD. Source: SoSoValue

Outflows from US-listed Bitcoin exchange-traded funds (ETFs) have likely contributed to these net deposits at Coinbase. The $1.26 billion in net outflows recorded since May 7 aligns with the negative stablecoin premium seen against the Chinese Yuan. Furthermore, Bitcoin’s repeated failure to break above the $82,000 resistance level has dampened sentiment, making it difficult to isolate the primary cause of the fluctuating Coinbase premium metric.

Related: Strategy stock beats Bitcoin after rising 25% in a month-BTC bottom in?

A 5% Bitcoin price correction from the $82,840 peak on May 6 should not cause concern, especially as Strategy continues adding exposure through perpetual stock issues. More importantly, the Bitcoin/USD discount on Coinbase is not a reliable indicator of institutional appetite. Furthermore, Coinbase exchange flows reveal no anomalies or panic selling.

Bitcoin’s strength above $81,000 on Thursday makes it evident that price differences between exchanges are not enough to dictate price trends. Ultimately, the odds of a $76,000 retest in the short term are low despite these technical distortions.